Jul

Recessions, Economists & Real Estate Recovery

The Never Ending Guessing Game

The public has gotten fed up watching professional economists stab and miss repeatedly with their predictions over the last few years. If I got a dollar for every time I heard a nationally recognized, and one would assume, college education economist declare the bottom was here, the worst was over and green shoots were sprouting up, I would have packed my bags and be on my way to a resort with the guys from AIG.

What is most perplexing about the “guess and be wrong game” of economic recovery is that it seems as if not one person that’s doing the predicting is using numbers or even a history book. I wonder if any of them ever heard of a little party, back in the day, called the Roaring Twenties. It was kind of followed by a hang over called the Great Depression and a whole bunch of unpleasantness that nobody ever wanted to relive ever again.

Don’t you wonder how is it that when our country is basically in the throws of reliving a new and improved version of economic mayhem and financial disaster, none of the powers that be are smart enough to crack a book or use some facts and figures to determine where the next field of land mines will be found. Color me crazy but history usually repeats itself and it might be repeating itself right now.

Maybe nobody is recognizing what’s going on because we’ve disguised ourselves with better clothes, hybrid cars and iPhones. Maybe they’re trying to fake it ‘til the make it. It’s falling short and this whole country has become numb, victims to the propaganda.

The latest reports show that real estate sales remained steady and housing starts went up a tad for one month nationally. There was a rush to tout the news, in spite of the fact that one month does not make a trend and that summer is traditionally a busy season for real estate. On top of that, there is a slowly lowering, bladed guillotine called the adjustable rate mortgage that will reset on homes nationwide effecting up to one million residences.

While I’d agree that there is growth, recovery and good real estate deals in some locations there is still more hurt and suffering in other places on the way. It’s a matter of statistics and data collected by those in charge of understanding economics presenting it to you, the consumer, in an understandable fashion without lying, or worse, guessing.

A while back I was asked when I thought things would be getting better. I figured since “the suits” had been so off base I could break the world’s economy down to something everyone understands; morning coffee. I’ve got one lonely little coffee cup left in my cupboard with a developers name on it. It had been years since the big boy builders peddled branded coffee cups and bagels and my supply has dwindled.

Last week, a developer put a promotional coffee cup in my hot little hands. One coffee cup does not make a trend, but what if it was a start? Heck, even if it isn’t a trend I have dozens of other false economic recovery declarations I could make before I even catch up to the starched shirt, pro’s shining us all on.

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Real Life in Bonita Springs is a project by Chris Griffith dedicated to writing useful blog posts for consumers about the Bonita Springs, Florida area. Find out what it is really like to live in Bonita Springs, Florida by reading about our fair city. You’ll get the latest in local real estate information, Bonita Springs real estate market reports and a little bit of humor. If you have topic ideas, feel free to request a story about the idea, after all, this site is just for you.

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